It’s the question that comes up every year, usually sometime in late October. Should you stay open on the big public holidays? On one hand, there’s the allure of a packed house and premium holiday pricing. But then you have to consider the eye-watering wage bills, exhausted staff, and the fact you’ll miss your own Christmas dinner.

There’s no easy answer here. Whether you decide to trade through Christmas and New Year’s depends on your business, location, team, and what you want to achieve. For some restaurant owners, it’s a golden opportunity to make a huge chunk of the year’s profit. For others, it’s a quick way to lose money and burn out.

With only a month to go, it’s time to make a final call. This isn’t a decision to make based on a gut feeling. You need to run the numbers, talk to your team, and weigh the real pros and cons. Let’s walk through the key things you should consider to help you decide what’s best for your business.

The Cost vs. Revenue Equation

Before you do anything else, you need to get forensic with the numbers. Opening on a public holiday is a high-stakes financial gamble, and you need to understand the true cost of entry.

The Reality of Holiday Wages

Public holiday penalty rates are the biggest factor. Under the Hospitality Award, you’re looking at paying your permanent staff 225% of their base rate, and casuals 250%. This can easily double or even triple your daily wage bill.

Start by mapping out a skeleton crew roster for the public holidays. Who would you absolutely need to run the service? Tally up the total wage cost for that day. This number is your starting line. Be brutally honest here; don’t underestimate the hours needed for prep and clean-down.

Action Tip: Create a simple spreadsheet. In one column, list the staff you’d need. In the next, their public holiday hourly rate. In the third, the hours they’d work. The sum at the bottom is your break-even wage cost. You need to earn this amount just to pay your team before you even consider other costs.

Projecting Your Revenue

Once you have your cost baseline, you need a realistic revenue projection. Look at your sales data from the same period last year. Was it busy? If you weren’t open, what were the days leading up to it like?

If you plan to offer a special set menu, you can calculate your potential revenue more accurately. For example, if your break-even wage cost is $5,000 and your set menu is $100 per head, you know you need to sell at least 50 tickets just to cover wages. That doesn’t even account for food costs, utilities, or a profit margin.

Also, consider the impact of a surcharge. While it’s become more common, some customers still resist it. Will a 15% surcharge deter bookings, or is it accepted in your area? This will directly affect your revenue potential.

Gauging Customer Demand

There’s no point opening if nobody comes. Assessing genuine customer demand in your specific location is critical.

• What are your competitors doing? Do a quick ring-around or online search. Are the other pubs, cafés, and restaurants in your immediate area opening? If everyone is closed, you could clean up by being the only option. If everyone is open, the pie is split into smaller pieces, and you’ll have to fight harder for every booking.
• What does your booking sheet tell you? Have you already received a flood of unsolicited enquiries for Christmas Day lunch or New Year’s Eve? This is the strongest indicator of real demand. If your phone has been silent, you might struggle to fill the venue.
• Is your location a holiday spot? A venue in a coastal town (for example, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast) that swells with tourists in summer has a much higher chance of success than a café in a deserted CBD. Be realistic about the foot traffic in your postcode during that specific week between Christmas and New Year.

Action Tip: Run a simple poll on your Instagram stories this week. “We’re thinking of opening on Boxing Day/New Year’s Day. Would you join us?” The engagement (or lack thereof) can be a very telling, real-time indicator of interest.

Your Team’s Well-being

Your team isn’t made of robots. They have lives outside of work – families, traditions, and a real need to recharge. Overworking them during the holidays just leads to burnout, resentment, and a really bad vibe in the new year.

The first step is to ask them. Don’t assume; have open conversations about who is willing and able to work on public holidays. Some staff, particularly those without family commitments nearby, will jump at the chance to earn penalty rates. Others will have unbreakable family traditions.

Forcing people to work who don’t want to is a terrible idea. Their morale will be low, the service will suffer, and you risk losing good people in the new year. If you can’t build a team of willing and enthusiastic volunteers to cover the shifts, that might be your answer right there.

Remember, choosing to close can be a powerful investment in your team. Giving everyone a guaranteed, paid break to rest and recharge with their loved ones is a huge show of goodwill. A happy, loyal team is worth more than one day’s takings.

The Long-Term Brand Impact

Finally, think beyond the single day of trade. What does your decision say about your brand?

• Being the Hero: For a local pub or a community café, being the only place open on Christmas Day can cement your status as a neighbourhood hub. You become the go-to spot, creating immense loyalty that pays dividends all year round.
• The Premium Experience: Opening for a special, ticketed New Year’s Eve event can position your brand as exclusive and high-end. It generates buzz and can attract a new, aspirational clientele.
• The Value of Scarcity: Deciding to close and giving your team a well-deserved break also sends a message. It says you prioritise people and quality of life. In today’s world, that can be a powerful brand statement that resonates deeply with both staff and customers.

Making the Final Call

So, should you open?

It might be worth it if:

• The numbers stack up, even with penalty rates.
• You are in a high-demand location with proven holiday traffic.
• You have a team of willing staff who are keen for the hours.
• You have a clear, profitable, and marketable offer (like a set menu).
• It aligns with your brand’s goal of being a community hub.

It might be better to close if:

• The wage bill makes profitability a long shot.
• Your location will be a ghost town.
• Your staff are already tired and need a break.
• You would have to force people to work.
• You, as the owner, are desperately in need of a break yourself.

Ultimately, the decision is yours. By taking an hour this week to work through these points honestly, you can move from uncertainty to a clear, confident decision. Whether you choose to open your doors or hang a “See you in the New Year” sign, you’ll be doing it for the right reasons.